Ben Roethlisberger’s Production in 2021: An Historical Look at NFL Quarterbacks’ Statistical Performance in Their 18th Season

By Jeremy Hritz

Ben Roethlisberger will begin his 18th year on July 21st when the Steelers report for training camp, and he will join a list of only 10 other quarterbacks who made it to their 18th season in the National Football League. The 18-Year Club is an impressive, if not elite one, including Super Bowl winners and Hall of Famers such as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Brett Favre, George Blanda, and Len Dawson. It’s good company for Roethlisberger, and it is indicative of the type of career he has had with the Steelers. 

To understand the performances of QBs in their 18th season, I set out to find all of those signal callers who demonstrated such longevity. In conducting my research for this article, I tried to be as thorough as possible as to not leave anyone off of this list who achieved 18 years, and I will continue to dig into the historical statistics to confirm this is the complete list.

The purpose of this analysis is to see what type of seasons were produced by quarterbacks in the 18th year of their careers. What is immediately noticeable in the tables below is that only 4 of them were full-time starters at that point in their careers, while the rest played in only spot duty. Regardless, it is impressive for a player, especially a quarterback who can be on the end of punishing hits, to have that type of durability. 

For comparative and productive purposes when looking at Big Ben for the upcoming season, it is best to look at those players on the list with 495 attempts or more, as the next closest to that number is Len Dawson with 235 attempts. While I did tabulate averages for all 10 quarterbacks on this list in a separate table below, the table comparing Brady, Brees, Favre, and Testaverde in their 18th seasons is more appropriate when projecting Roethlisberger’s year in 2021.

Findings

What stands out? Many things. And even though it’s a small sample size, barring an injury, if you arrive at your 18th year and are still the starter, the probability is you will produce a decent stat line. For instance, none of the four quarterbacks had below a 60% completion percentage, nor did any of them pass for fewer than 3472 yards, and that was Favre with a Jet’s offensive unit very limited in talent, and it was his first season with an organization other than the Green Bay Packers. Two of the four made the postseason, and while Brady and Brees have yet to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, they are stone-cold, first-ballot locks, making it 3 of the 4 who are HOF’ers.

In looking at the average of these 4 quarterbacks, the stat line for the year would read as 347/521, 66.6% completion percentage, 3893 yards, 25 touchdowns to 13 interceptions, a 93.9 QB rating, a 10-6 (rounded up from 10-5.5), a 50% chance of making the postseason, a 25% chance of making the Super Bowl, and a 25% chance of advancing to a Championship Game. Again, the sample size is not large enough to make the statistics generalizable; however, it does give credence to the range of performance we could expect from Roethlisberger this season.

Would you take the aforementioned stat line for Roethlisberger this season? Do you think it would be enough to get them into the postseason? I’d love to hear your perspective below in the comments. 

Regardless of the outcome for Ben this season, 18 seasons is quite the accomplishment, and historically speaking, a favorable outcome should not be a surprise. 

*Please note, you may have to scroll laterally to see all of the data in the tables below due to formatting.

QB Stats With 297 Attempts Or More in 18th Season

	Completions	Attempts	CP	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rate	Record	Playoffs	HOF?
Tom Brady, 2017	385	581	66.3	4577	32	8	102.8	13-3	Yes, lost Super Bowl	Not yet
Drew Brees, 2018	364	489	74.4	3992	32	5	115.7	13-2	Yes, lost NFC Championship	Not yet
Brett Favre, 2008	343	522	65.7	3472	22	22	81	9-7	No	Yes
Vinny Testeverde, 2004	297	495	60	3532	17	20	76.4	5-10	No	No
	347.25	521.75	66.6	3893.25	25.75	13.75	93.975	10-5	2/4	3/4

All QBs Stat Line From Season 18

	Completions	Attempts	CP	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rate	Record	Playoffs	HOF?
Tom Brady, 2017	385	581	66.3	4577	32	8	102.8	13-3	Yes, lost Super Bowl	Not yet
Drew Brees, 2018	364	489	74.4	3992	32	5	115.7	13-2	Yes, lost NFC Championship	Not yet
Brett Favre, 2008	343	522	65.7	3472	22	22	81	9-7	No	Yes
Earl Morrall, 1973	17	38	44.7	253	0	4	27.5	0-1	Yes, won Super Bowl as backup w/Dolphins	No
Vinny Testeverde, 2004	297	495	60	3532	17	20	76.4	5-10	No	No
George Blanda, 1967	15	38	39.5	285	3	3	59.6	0-0	Yes, lost Super Bowl	Yes
Dave Krieg, 1997	1	2	50	2	0	0	56.2	0-0	No	No
Len Dawson, 1974	138	235	58.7	1573	7	13	65.8	3-5	No	Yes
Jim Hart, 1983	50	91	54.9	592	4	8	53	1-2	No	No
Steve DeBerg, 1998	30	59	50.8	369	3	1	80.4		Yes, lost Super Bowl	No
	164	255	56.5	1864.7	12	8.4	71.84	N/A	5/10	5/10