By Jeremy Hritz
Author’s Note: Please see the statistics used for this article following the analysis in Table form.
The expectations for Najee Harris in his rookie season could not be higher, and anything under 1000 yards will be viewed by fans as a major disappointment, barring an extenuating circumstance such as an injury. The absence of an effective running game has starved Steelers fans. They are desperate for any available crumbs of hope, and they believe a full loaf has been found in Harris.
But what is reasonable to expect from Harris in year one? And what numbers will he need to reach in order to show he was in fact worth pick #24 and that he can be an impactful contributor in the years to come?
To that end, I collected the stat lines from the first two season of some notable running backs in Steelers history to provide a context of how Harris can be fairly evaluated following the 2021 season. What follows is a breakdown and comparison of former Steelers runners during their first two seasons, and predictions for what we can and should expect from Harris.
Analyzing 7 Solid Steelers Runners
There was scientific approach to my selection of the running backs on this list, other than they all, at one point during their tenure with the Steelers, had productive, successful seasons, and all of them, except for one, accumulated over 1000 yards rushing in a season (James Connor). In total, I looked at 7 notable Steelers runners, and took note of their carries, yards, average yards per carry, and touchdowns. The runners included in this study are:
- Franco Harris
- Barry Foster
- Jerome Bettis
- Willie Parker
- Rashard Mendenhall
- Le’Veon Bell
- James Connor
Steelers Runners in Year 1
In analyzing the Year 1 table, what stands out is that only 2 of the 7 ball carriers totaled 1000 yards rushing: Jerome Bettis and Franco Harris, while Le’Veon Bell was close. From there, it’s a significant drop off, with the next highest rushing total at 203 yards. The average yards per carry for the runners in their first year is slightly higher at 4.6 than year two’s 4.3. Based on these 7 backs, an average stat line as a benchmark for Harris could be 121 carries for 562 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, and about 4 touchdowns. If this were the case at the end of the season, there would be many disappointed Steelers fans, and more than likely, the Steelers will have missed the postseason.
While the best rookie rushing season for the Steelers is owned by Franco Harris (Bettis picked up his 1429 with the Rams his rookie year), Najee has an opportunity to surpass this mark with 17 total games at his disposal. Ultimately, with the expectations that are on Harris, anything below 1300 yards rushing will be a disappointment. However, if he does not hit that mark, because of the precedent set by former Steelers backs, it should not come as a surprise based on the historical numbers. Anything over 860 yards would put him in the category with Le’Veon Bell, Franco, and Jerome, and that’s not bad company.
Count On a Jump In Production in Year 2
If a big number season does not happen in Year 1, there’s a good chance Harris will break out in Year 2, and while this is a small sample size, common sense says this is generalizable across the NFL. 4 out the 7 runners on the list eclipsed 1000 yards in Year 2, with Connor only 27 yards away from doing so as well. The only 2 backs without 1000 yards were Franco and Barry Foster, who only had 284 carries between them, a number that is below a full-year’s worth of carries for a bell cow back. The average stat line in Year 2 for a notable Steelers back is 229 carries for 979 yards, 5 touchdowns, and a 4.3 yard per carry average. The point? While fans may be disappointed, if Harris does not hit 1000 yards, history shows the second time around is more fruit-bearing than the first.
So What Will Najee Deliver in Year 1?
So what will Najee Harris total at the conclusion of the 2021 season? Will it be 562 yards, 1429 yards, or an astronomical number even too optimistic for the most fervent of homers? Nobody knows for certain, but we have a pretty good idea of where he could land and how that would stack up against Steelers runners of the past.
Year 1 Stats for Steelers Runners
| Player | Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 (Rams) | 294 | 1429 | 4.9 | 7 |
| Franco Harris | 1 | 188 | 1055 | 5.6 | 10 |
| Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 244 | 860 | 3.5 | 8 |
| Barry Foster | 1 | 36 | 203 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 32 | 186 | 5.8 | 0 |
| James Connor | 1 | 32 | 144 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| AVERAGES | 121 | 562 | 4.6 | 3.7 |
Year 2 Stats for Steelers Runners
| Player | Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs |
| Le’Veon Bell | 2 | 290 | 1361 | 4.7 | 8 |
| Willie Parker | 2 | 255 | 1202 | 4.7 | 4 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 242 | 1108 | 4.6 | 7 |
| Jerome Bettis | 2 (Rams) | 319 | 1025 | 3.2 | 3 |
| James Connor | 2 | 215 | 973 | 4.5 | 12 |
| Franco Harris | 2 | 188 | 698 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Barry Foster | 2 | 96 | 488 | 5.1 | 1 |
| AVERAGES | 229 | 979 | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Jerome Bettis | 1 (Rams) | 294 | 1429 | 4.9 | 7 |
| 2 (Rams) | 319 | 1025 | 3.2 | 3 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| James Connor | 1 | 32 | 144 | 4.5 | 0 |
| 2 | 215 | 973 | 4.5 | 12 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Le’Veon Bell | 1 | 244 | 860 | 3.5 | 8 |
| 2 | 290 | 1361 | 4.7 | 8 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Franco Harris | 1 | 188 | 1055 | 5.6 | 10 |
| 2 | 188 | 698 | 3.7 | 3 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Willie Parker | 1 | 32 | 186 | 5.8 | 0 |
| 2 | 255 | 1202 | 4.7 | 4 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| 2 | 242 | 1108 | 4.6 | 7 |
| Year | Carries | Yards | Average | TDs | |
| Barry Foster | 1 | 36 | 203 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 2 | 96 | 488 | 5.1 | 1 |